When the ready-room alarm went off—high-low, high-low—two Norwegian Air Force pilots pulled on cold-water survival gear, grabbed their flight bags, and sprinted through swirling snow to their hangars. Their decades-old F-16 fighter jets roared to life, and as the airport snowplow halted to let them pass, the jets taxied to the runway and lit the afterburners. The training run took less than 10 minutes.

Norway has long kept two jets on round-the-clock alert at this Arctic base, allowing NATO to put eyes on the Russian warplanes that round the North Cape and head southwest. And while Moscow’s new assertiveness has Oslo preparing additional military units to react more quickly, defense officials here are also looking with concern toward Washington, where the incoming Trump administration has yet to articulate an unambiguous transatlantic security policy.

“Concerned” is a word we heard a lot last week, traveling with defense officials from Norway’s Ministry of Defense in Oslo to this coastal base 50 miles above the Arctic Circle, and beyond. I was part of a group of Americans—analysts, former diplomats, and national-security officials—brought here on a trip organized by the Atlantic Council, a NATO-oriented think tank in Washington, and sponsored by the Norwegian government.

Norwegian defense officials spoke carefully about their changing situation. “The Baltic countries feel threatened; we don’t feel threatened, but we see the potential,” one said.

But they are concerned. The Russian ships, submarines, and aircraft that sortie westward from Murmansk and nearby airbases have been coming more frequently. It’s been happening for a while; the first big jump came in 2007, when the number of Russian warplanes intercepted off Norway’s coast increased fivefold. The operations are also growing more sophisticated; in October, Russian bombers took off from Arctic runways, threaded their way through international airspace near Gibraltar, and struck targets in Syria.

It was 2014’s Crimean invasion that really woke people up, and not just in Norway. Several officials said that NATO had essentially stopped planning for the defense of Europe in the late 1990s, at least at a nuts-and-bolts level. That’s being fixed, but now there is a new concern: A U.S. president who appears to care more about Russia than America’s allies.

In December, Norwegian Prime Minister Erna Solberg visited Donald Trump, then the president-elect, who has alternately called the North Atlantic alliance “obsolete,” suggested that America might ignore its treaty obligations, and mused that perhaps NATO could change its central focus to counterterrorism. Solberg urged Trump to reconsider the alliance’s importance, or at least to set a European policy and stick to it.

Defense officials in Norway explained why. European unity is fragile: While northern and eastern Europe see Russia as the biggest looming problem, southern Europeans are stressed by migration flows from Syria and elsewhere. The populist sentiments that drove Brexit exist elsewhere in NATO. Even in Norway, where a 2011 terrorist attack damaged the prime minister’s office in Oslo, there is little appetite for turning NATO into a primarily counterterror organization.

Europe may roll with the punches, officials said, even if the United States decreases its support. But if the Trump administration cannot describe and commit to a stable position, they said, the extra uncertainty could make it impossible for European leaders to find consensus answers to key questions: What threats they should prioritize? And how much should each nation contribute to the common defense?

Norwegians are encouraged by the selection of James Mattis as U.S. defense secretary. They fought beside him and under his command in Iraq and Afghanistan, developing such expertise in counterterrorism operations, one defense official said, that they knew the names of the principal opium traders in their areas of operations.

Norway has long structured its military to contribute specialized groups of troops and gear to such missions. These deployments, along with operations and training exercises closer to home, are planned and monitored at National Joint Headquarters, an underground fortress sunk deep into a mountain near Bodø. Built in the 1950s and 1960s by extending Wehrmacht tunnels dug during the Nazi occupation, the facility was envisioned as a place where military commanders might survive the nuclear blows of a war with the Soviet Union. In the years after the Berlin Wall fell, its rough-hewn rock walls may have come to seem a bit anachronistic. They feel somewhat less so now.

In the two-story operations center, a column of digital clocks displayed the time in Kabul, Erbil, Juba, Moscow, and Washington, as well as the military-standard Zulu. A smaller screen detailed foreign deployments: On January 19, this country of just over 5 million people had 360 troops participating in a dozen operations in Afghanistan, Iraq, South Sudan, and elsewhere. The duty officers here direct troops at home and abroad, and even place a weekly Skype call to Russia’s Northern Fleet headquarters, an exception to the general radio silence between Western and Russian militaries since 2014.

Up on the giant video wall, a map of Norway showed the locations of military forces in green and blue. (Red squares denoting Russian assets had been scrubbed for our visit.) Even when they are not deployed abroad, Norwegian forces are active across a vast swath of the Arctic, with responsibility for an ocean area nearly as large as the Mediterranean Sea. Much of their training takes place in the same locales they might be called upon to defend.

Among their current concerns is the state of anti-submarine warfare in NATO. Drawn down after the Soviet fleet withered, the alliance’s ASW capability is once again rising to meet a Russian buildup. Like the United States and Britain, Norway is replacing some of its ancient P-3 sub-hunting planes with jet-powered P-8s. But officials here worry that the balance has shifted, and that the alliance might not be able to keep Russia’s quieter, cruise-missile-armed subs from severing the transatlantic resupply line—that is, sinking the ships that would carry U.S. reinforcements to Europe if war broke out. It’s a concern that has grown in importance since the U.S. pulled its large tank garrisons home. Norway wants its alliance partners, at least, to overhaul the ASW command structure and boost its importance.

Back at the Bodø air base, the wind off the Norwegian Sea picked up, grounding the day’s training flights. Hail rattled off dining-hall windows while a few candles burned on side tables, adding their light to a dim January day. Elsewhere on this island, a northern node of NATO’s cyber defense went about its work, its indoor practitioners impervious to the storm outside.

In the next few years, the Norwegian armed forces will spend much of their time and effort preparing to assimilate the new P-8s, along with a handful of new submarines and the 52 F-35A Joint Strike Fighters that represent Norway’s biggest-ever non-energy investment. The military will continue to work on ways to contribute to operations around the world. But they will also, one defense official said, build up stocks of ammunition and spare parts, train to reduce reaction times, and prepare to move quickly if attacked.

They are, he said, concerned.

(theatlantic)

The end of 2016 saw the NATO Archives fully implicated with events commemorating the 60th anniversary of one of the most important texts in the history of the Alliance. Approved by the North Atlantic Council on 13 December 1956, the Report on Non-Military Cooperation in NATO is a landmark document whose principle recommendations laid the foundation for NATO’s evolution toward increased political consultation amongst its Allies.

The report was the result of a collaborative authorship between Lester B. Pearson, Gaetano Martino, and Halvard Lange, the three Foreign Ministers of Canada, Italy and Norway, respectively, who were tasked in May 1956 to “advise the North Atlantic Council on ways and means to improve and extend NATO cooperation in non-military fields and to develop greater unity within the Atlantic Community.” Collectively and affectionately known as NATO’s “Three Wise Men”, they conducted bilateral interviews and sent out questionnaires to all 15 NATO Allies to investigate how the Alliance’s security policy could be broadened with non-military tools. The recommendations that emerged from the report, emphasizing political, economic, cultural, and scientific cooperation amongst member countries, would have long-lasting implications for NATO that continue to resonate today.

On 30 November 2016, the NATO Archives celebrated the anniversary of the report during the meeting of the Archives Committee at NATO HQ with the launch of an exhibition showcasing a unique collection of publicly disclosed archival documents and photos related to the work of the Three Wise Men. All of this material was selected and arranged to illuminate the historical and political contexts that surrounded the drafting of the famous report. The exhibition, opened by Wayne Bush (Assistant Secretary General for Executive Management) with closing remarks by Ambassador Tacan Ildem (Assistant Secretary General for Public Diplomacy), also featured a unique gathering of special guests to introduce the authors of the report. The Permanent Representatives to NATO of Canada (Ambassador Kerry Buck), Italy (Ambassador Claudio Bisogniero) and Norway (Ambassador Knut Hauge) each delivered biographical overviews of their country’s respective “Wise Man” to highlight not only the importance of their work on the report, but also to illuminate their distinguished political careers.

The following week, the NATO Archives “Three Wise Men” exhibition was incorporated into the preparations for the Foreign Ministers meeting at NATO HQ that took place on 6-7 December 2016. Installed in the main conference hall, the exhibition served as a potent reminder of the historical and continuing importance of political consultation during the Ministerial meeting. To punctuate this bridging of the past with the present, the exhibition’s central image of the Three Wise Men in repose was used as the backdrop for an extraordinary photo session with the then-current Foreign Ministers of Canada (Stéphane Dion), Italy (Paolo Gentiloni) and Norway (Børge Brende) as they sat in identical poses as their predecessors.

Finally, the “Three Wise Men” exhibition provided the historical documentation support for “Euro-Atlantic Security: More Than Just a Military Matter”, a special event presented by Carnegie Europe that focused on the contemporary relevance of the report on its 60th anniversary. Held at Norway House in Brussels, Belgium on 13 December 2016 (the actual anniversary date of the report), this high profile event gathered NATO diplomats, European Union officials, think tank representatives and members of the international press for a lively symposium that included a keynote address by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and a panel discussion revolving around a new paper written by Carnegie Europe’s Judy Dempsey entitled “From Suez to Syria: Why NATO Must Strengthen its Political Role”. The event also featured closing remarks delivered by NATO Deputy Secretary General Rose Gottemoeller, who graciously acknowledged the NATO Archives for “helping to pull together historical information to enlighten and strengthen our discussions” throughout these commemorative events. Her final words of gratitude held particular significance for the NATO Archives, as she concluded by recognizing the importance of archivists “not only for recollection and history but also bringing a new generation along in what they need to learn about national security”.

(nato)

A force of some 300 U.S. Marines hit the ground in Norway on Monday, marking the second major American deployment near Russian borders this month.

The Marines based out of Camp Lejune in North Carolina will be in the Arctic nation for a year-long rotation at Vaernes military base, roughly 900 miles from Russia’s border. It is the first American military deployment to Norway since World War II.

It comes less than a week after 3,000 U.S. troops arrived in Poland and other Baltic nations as part of NATO’s Operation Atlantic Resolve, which is viewed by the Kremlin as a direct threat to Russia’s expanding authority and influence in the region.

The Norway deployment, first announced in October, will focus on training for joint combat operations and arctic warfare, Norwegian Home Guards spokesman Rune Haarstad told Reuters Monday.

Russian diplomats lashed out at the U.S. troop presence, demanding Oslo explain the military benefits of the American presence in the country, other than to antagonize Moscow.

“Taking into account multiple statements of Norwegian officials about the absence of threat from Russia to Norway we would like to understand for what purposes is Norway so … willing to increase its military potential, in particular through stationing of American forces,” Russian embassy officials said in a statement to Reuters.

In May, Russian military commanders announced plans to three newly created military divisions to protect its southern and western borders.

Totaling roughly 30,000 troops, the mission for those new divisions would be to counteract American and NATO troop buildups in the region, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said in an interview at the time with state-run media outlets.

(washingtontimes)

Norway’s decision to buy five P-8 maritime surveillance aircraft is the latest in a series of moves tying the NATO member closer to the UK and US, as top defense officials from the three countries seek to re-energize a maritime-surveillance alliance that had weakened in recent years.

The three countries formed a strong maritime-surveillance network throughout the Cold War, but as relations with Russia thawed and attentions turned toward counter-terrorism activities after the 9/11 attacks, the desire to keep a strong presence in the High North faded.

In 2006, the United States decided to leave the Keflavik, Iceland, air base which had been home to its P-3 airplanes designated to patrol the High North. Then in 2010, the UK decided to kill a replacement program of its Nimrod maritime surveillance aircraft without a replacement in sight. And while Norway kept maintaining its own P-3 fleet, Oslo was slow to decide on a replacement for the aging aircraft.

Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, however, the desire for planes capable of hunting submarines was suddenly on the forefront of everyone’s mind, says Magnus Nordesman, director of the Atlantic Council’s Transatlantic Security Initiative.

“During the Cold War there was this [anti-submarine warfare] triangle between the US flying missions out of Keflavik, the Brits flying out of Scotland and the Norwegians flying P-3s out of Andoya,” he said. “That triangle that existed in the Cold War is coming back.”

In 2015, the US announced it would look to return to Keflavik, where roughly $21 million in modifications – such as cutting a notch into a hangar door to accommodate the P-8’s taller tail – are slated to make it a usable base once more. And the UK decided to procure a fleet of nine P-8’s, a sale that was officially announced at the 2016 Farnborough Air Show.

Now, Norway will add five P-8s to the region. And while it may take a while for the P-8s to come online, eventually there will be an interoperable fleet of maritime surveillance aircraft capable of hunting for Russian submarines in the region – with three governments that are eager to work together at an operational level.

“For a country like Norway, with maritime areas that are almost 80 percent of the Mediterranean, they are almost seven times as big as our land territory, it is unthinkable for us not have good situational awareness in our own areas,” Norwegian Defense Minister Ine Eriksen Søreide told Defense News in a Dec. 2 interview at the Reagan National Defense Forum.

“We see that Russia is also developing new capabilities, especially sub-surface capabilities, that we need to keep track on. And for us, it is just a very good way to continue to develop a very important capability for Norway that gives us the situational awareness we depend on.”

Both US Defense Secretary Ash Carter and his deputy, Bob Work, have spoken admiringly in the past about Søreide and Michael Fallon, the UK defense secretary. And both Fallon and Søreide have kind words for each other, both in private and when sharing the stage, such as at the Reagan National Defense Forum, held outside Los Angeles on Dec 3.

Fallon traveled to Norway’s Bodø Main Air Station in early November to sign an agreement on training and sharing capabilities between the UK and Norway, with a focus on maritime surveillance.

In a Dec. 4 interview, Work called the expanding relationship between the three countries “really, really exciting,” and said he was “very confident and optimistic that you will see more defense collaboration and more defense ties” between the nations.

Speaking about the fact the three nations will all operate the P-8 out of Europe, Work said, “We haven’t had something like this since the Cold War, … and that just opens up a whole new level of possibilities for us to in the future do collaborative and coordinated operations.”

Could that collaboration include Norway taking on the leadership role among its neighbors in Sweden, Finland and Iceland? Work acknowledged there are ties being formed, but pointed out Norway is the most Atlantic-facing of those nations, something Nordesman highlighted as well.

“I think there is a general trend across NATO that while the alliance remains important, various regions start building their own coalitions of the willing” focused on different regions, said Nordesman. “To some degree its natural. The people who live there care about different things. So US, UK, Norway, to some degree Denmark and Iceland, form one around the North Atlantic. You see Swedish, Finish, Baltic, Polish [governments] caring about the Baltic sea. You see Bulgaria, Romania, Turkish around the Black Sea. So throughout, there are these little clusters of cooperation that are beginning to emerge.”

Speaking to Defense News on Dec. 3, Søreide said Norway was looking to do more with intelligence sharing among the northern nations.

“The fact we are in the same region and we see much of the same picture around us makes it valuable for us to be able to share intelligence. There are other things that we do together that strengthen our operational capabilities,” she said, but also noted that both Sweden and Finland are not part of NATO, thus restricting some of the options.

Cost Reductions

The equipment coordination between the three countries could result in procurement benefits as well.

In September, Vice Adm. Joseph Rixey, director of the Defense Security Cooperation Agency, said he wanted to expand a recent program that allows NATO allies to pool their resources and buy as a group from the US. That expansion, Rixey argued, could eventually lead to block buys of equipment for systems such as the P-8.

“Imagine what you could do with lead nation procurement if you could get something like the P-8 — maybe not the P-8 itself, but certainly all the support, the sonobuoys, the spares, everything associated with it that you could buy — in batch quantities and not have to worry about third-party transfer restrictions,” Rixey said then.

The first steps towards such an agreement have already been taken, with the Fallon and Søreide signing an agreement in November to find ways to reduce costs for the P-8. And while details on what that actually means are slim, both ministers acknowledged that some form of equipment joint buy may make sense in the future.

“We just signed an agreement with the UK . . . on doing a lot of cooperation on both the F-35 and the P-8s,” Søreide said. “For the first time in over 60 years we will be flying the same fighter aircraft, the F-35, and we have also huge opportunities for cooperating on training and exercises, spare parts, maintenance and actually everything that entails having these new modern capabilities.”

Adds Work, “When you have that interoperability and you can land and get servicing wherever you land — wash racks, maintenance hangars you can use — it just makes it a lot easier .”

Asked about the option to jointly buy equipment, Fallon said, “We’ll be talking to the Norwegians about that, absolutely,” adding that he sees “huge scope for reducing costs looking at training, how they are supported, maintained and operated.”

Richard Aboulafia, an analyst with the Teal Group, says a joint-buying program is a great idea for Norway, as a fleet of five planes is “disproportionately expensive.”

“You have full overhead burden falling on five aircraft, so any way to spread that by sharing spares or training costs with a larger user like the US Navy or Royal Air Force counts a lot,” he said. “And it’s made easier by the fact that most of the plane is just a commercial jet. The military stuff is military-specific, but the stuff . . . that requires greater spare consumption, that’s all commercial. So there are many things you can do.”

Beyond cost benefits, the UK could also gain by having Norwegian and US P-8s fill a possible shortage of P-8s caused by only being able to afford five of the aircraft, which is believed to be less than the actual mission requirements.

Fighters and Troops

In addition to the P-8, the three countries will all be operating the F-35 joint strike fighter in the future – giving yet another collaborative opportunity for the three nations.

Work noted that the first place the F-35 will be stationed is the UK, which “opens up whole other areas of collaboration” among the three nations. So too, he said, does a decision to base roughly 330 Marines on Norwegian soil on a temporary rotation throughout 2017.

While US troops have come in and out of Norway for training exercises, this is the first permanent rotation on Norwegian soil for the US since the start of the Cold War, and one that Søreide believes “can be a very good way of strengthening also our operational capability alongside the US operational capability.”

“I think it is a big deal, it is a very obvious demonstration of the deepening US-Norwegian relationship,” Nordesman said of the forces, noting the move is a break from the tradition of avoiding allied forces stationed in the north of Norway in order to not provoke Russia.

And while leadership in the US may be changing, expect the three partners to continue to focus on growing the alliance. Both Søreide and Fallon expressed confidence in president-elect Donald Trump’s pick for Secretary of Defense, retired Gen. Jim Mattis, citing familiarity between Mattis and some of their top commanders.

Those ties with Mattis may benefit Norway in particular, as the nation falls below the NATO-requested target to spend 2 percent of GDP on defense. Comments from candidate-Trump during the campaign have led to questions about whether NATO countries not meeting that requirement can be assured of US defense in the future.

(defensenews)