Today, Central Eurasia is undergoing another broad transformation, one that may lead to regional cooperation and growth. This was the take-home message from my visit to Kazakhstan last month for the Eurasia Media Forum.  Kazakhs will vote for a new President on 9 June and, for the first time since the country’s independence. Diplomats say the winner will certainly be Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, but six other candidates have joined the race.

And speaking of growth, the Central Asian countries have themselves come of age and are increasingly playing roles beyond their region, punching above their relative international weight.

The Republic of Kazakhstan is not the sort of country that you hear about much in Norwegian media. Newspapers and TV networks have limited space, after all, and with so much happening in places like China and the Middle East, the dealings of this land-locked former Soviet territory don’t rate as much ink or airtime. Still, Kazakhstan’s story is significant and often entertaining — it’s a big, rapidly modernizing, resource-rich nation sandwiched between Russia and China — so it was an unusual treat to discover that NORWAYNEWS.com is devoting an entire special report to the country. This updates from Kazakhstan would seem to be a small but important landmark moment for NORWAY NEWS, bringing its enormous readers into contact with a corner of the world they might otherwise never experience.

The first Central Asian country to move beyond natural resources to an industrial and post-industrial, services-based economy is Kazakhstan, which has outperformed not just its “stan” neighbors, but also all other post-Soviet states, including Russia, in terms of the quality and pace of reforms. Only the Baltic States are considered today more developed than Kazakhstan.

As tensions subside, including talk of cooperation on hydropower generation at the huge-mountain dams and water supply for agricultural irrigation, investors are beginning to see Central Asia as a fifty-million-strong market, with consumers starved for goods and services.

As the largest landlocked country in the world, wedged between vying emerging powers Russia and China, sitting on a wealth of oil and mineral deposits, Kazakhstan’s location is unique – and vital. A potential gateway to the Caspian Sea and on to Europe, Kazakhstan’s future economic growth depends heavily on transport infrastructure and regional trade.

The Kazakh capital hosted another Astana Economic Forum, drawing the world’s attention and bringing together influential speakers from Europe, Asia, Africa and America. 

The XII Astana Economic Forum, the largest annual business event in Eurasia, took place in Nur-Sultan on 16-17 May. Politicians, investors, economists and world-renowned scientists discussed the global challenges of our time, focusing on the theme of this year’s Forum: “Inspiring growth: people, cities, economies”.

5,600 delegates and 460 speakers from 74 countries participated in the Forum. In addition, 381 journalists from 30 countries covered the event. Six venues were used – the Congress Center, the Hilton Hotel, the Astana International Financial Centre, the Astana Hub, St. the Regis Hotel and the Rixos Hotel.

For the first time in the 12-year history of the Forum, a completely new discussion format, unique for Kazakhstan, was held – the First Kazakhstan Forum on Achieving Sustainable Development Goals. The round table was organized for finance ministers and heads of central banks, with the participation of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). In addition, AEF Talks was organized for students and young people, which included open public lectures and meetings with Nobel laureates and politicians. The press center also organized one-on-one debates among speakers, in front of the media.

On the first day of the Forum, the plenary session was opened by Nursultan Nazarbayev, the First President of Kazakhstan, who initiated the AEF 12 years ago. He stressed the important role of the Forum in overcoming regional and global challenges.

“Ideas and recommendations discussed here in the past helped Kazakhstan to a great extent react to global challenges in a timely manner and successfully overcome difficulties. Kazakhstan’s development model, despite of all the circumstances and forecasts, proved its sustainability and efficiency. We set ambitious goals and we have reached them”, the First President said.

Christine Lagarde, the Managing Director of IMF, began her speech with the words of the famous Kazakh poet Abai Kunanbayev[l1] : “Walking slowly, step confidently.” In her opinion, this wisdom can be the key to developing effective measures to achieve inclusive growth in the countries of the Caucasus and Central Asia. Ms. Lagarde stated that Kazakhstan and other regional countries have great potential for further development.

Christine Lagarde believes that the mediation of Kazakhstan can relieve global tensions.

The Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, Christine Lagarde, believes that global tensions are expected to decrease in the next six months, and Kazakhstan’s mediation can play an important role. She announced this on Thursday during the plenary session of the XII Astana Economic Forum.

“Our forecast indicated that 75% of the global economy has accelerated over the past two years, however, unfortunately, in 2019 we see that 70% of global GDP slowing down. I am not suggesting that there is a recession, but the slowdown is unambiguous compared to last year, where we see it has decreased from 3.6% to 3.3%.” said Lagarde.

She expressed the hope that next year the GDP will yet again increase to 3.6%, which suggests that “there will be no financial tightening of the belts and no additional risks.” Among the possible risks, she cited international tensions that are found in abundance, in particular between that of the United States and China.

“Although we expect a global economic rebound in the next six months, we cannot be certain. And we hope that the voltages that exist at the moment will be relaxed for certain reasons. And your mediation, perhaps Mr. President Nursultan Nazarbayev, will help with this, ”Lagarde stressed.

In general, the IMF Managing Director stressed that if Central Asia can use the opportunities of financial technologies, as the emerging market countries in other regions have done, this can significantly improve the situation of poor citizens, women and youth.

“In this morning’s session, I’ll look more at increasing inclusiveness within countries, but today’s forum also offers opportunities for expanding ties between countries,” she concluded. “We are expecting a rebound in late 2019, but it seems precarious and vulnerable to downside risks. These include country-related uncertainties, such as Brexit, and broader tension around trade and unease in global financial markets. To address these issues and put growth on a higher and more inclusive path, the world needs strong international cooperation in addition to good domestic policies. Events such as the Astana Economic Forum provide a platform for regional cooperation, she said. 

Armen Sarkissian, the President of Armenia, pointed out that not only heads of states, but all people should participate in the creation of a new system. He said: “Avoid calamities, design a world for newly born children. They live in a completely different world. I hope that the system we want to create will survive not only the competition between large countries but the main difficulties of a changing world.”

The President of the Republic of Armenia Armen Sarkisiyan believes that the worries about the multi-conceptual world are well grounded and appeals to build a new system. And all people not only presidents have to take part in this process.

“This world changes and people’s voices become louder and louder. For instance, the election of Mister Macron in France. His election took 3-4 months, though nobody knew him at all before. This was thanks to his dialogue with people. This is a new world. Regardless of what we will be building tomorrow, which will happen in 15-20 years, let us not forget that everything will be changing”, – Sarkisiyan imphasized.

We will also hear from others, including on how the IMF can help.” Hans-Paul Burkner, Chairman of the Board of Directors of BCG: “The Astana Economic Forum over the last few years has proven its status as the most prominent discussion platform in Central Asia, the venue where leaders meet.” 

Armida Salsiah Alisjahbana, Deputy Secretary-General of the United Nations, Executive Secretary of the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UNESCAP): “The Astana Economic Forum has become one of the most important platforms to engage thought leaders from our region and internationally. I am hoping to have the opportunity to interact with the Forum participants to exchange ideas on regional and global policy issues ranging from inclusive growth, smart cities, technological progress and regional cooperation under the overarching framework of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.” 

Tatiana Valovaya, Member of the Board (Minister) for Integration and Macroeconomics at the Eurasian Economic Commission: “The Astana Economic Forum is always very ‘alive’, subtly reacting to the changes taking place, and setting the tone for finding answers to the current global agenda. 

Therefore, many of the questions that are being posed on the world stage today, including the changing economic paradigm, are being discussed at a representative Astana platform with the involvement of a wide range of reputable experts, important politicians and eminent economists.” Kenneth Rogoff, Professor of Economics at Harvard University and Chief Economist of the International Monetary Fund (2001-2003): “After four decades of miracle growth, trend growth in China has fallen significantly, and both China and the world will need to adjust. 

The Astana Forum offers an important opportunity to exchange views about these issues, as well as for discussion on risks and opportunities that emerging market economies, especially in Asia, may now face.” Juan Manuel Santos Calderon, President of Colombia (2010-2018), 2016 Nobel Peace Prize Laureate: “Forums like the AEF prove to be of the utmost importance to discuss global challenges, come up with creative solutions and trigger change. 

My goal is to mobilize opinion towards a more optimistic outlook on humankind and the challenges ahead. I think that optimism is a necessary quality in order to foster innovation, association between different individuals and much needed for the state of the world today. We are better than we were 20 years ago, now we need to create the necessary conditions to achieve a sustainable future for humankind and the world”, he said.

Rae Kwon Chung believes that Kazakhstan and Central Asian countries can cooperate with China as partners of the “One Belt – One Way” project and export renewable energy sources to the PRC and Korea via the Silk Way.

“Korea extremely needs renewable energy to meet our 2030 goals. Korea is ready to import renewable energy. 

Kazakhstan can export it through China. An underwater duct is being built from China to Korea. Therefore, it is not a dream, it can all be done in a few days. We need the political will to achieve this goal,” said the Nobel Prize winner.

Moreover, today all countries including Kazakhstan need to change their perception of waste management. For example, now, in Korea 3% of renewable energy is being produced from waste.

“We burn garbage and use this energy for heating and for producing electricity. Waste, garbage is now become a new source of renewable energy. The whole world suffers from garbage crisis. However, it can be a source of energy. Therefore, on the one hand, we can solve the problem of this garbage crisis, which is bad for the environment, on the other hand, to create energy. We solve two problems at the same time. This could be a major initiative for Kazakhstan, ”said Rae Kwon Chung.

As Askar Mamin, the Prime Minister of Kazakhstan, noted, the Government of Kazakhstan fully supports the UN on issues of quality, equality, ecology, peace and justice in the world. Most sustainable development goals are very closely embedded in Kazakhstan’s most important plans and strategies. In particular, currently more than 50% of the SDGs indicators are reflected in plans and strategies in development, education, health, environment and other sectors.

The Prime Minister emphasized: “As infrastructure becomes the basis for investment projects, our goal is to develop technological solutions, create opportunities for green investment and their implementation in Kazakhstan and in Central Asian countries. Our country’s deep commitment to the world makes Kazakhstan one of the most peaceful countries of the world.”

However, during the panel session “Towards becoming a top thirty developed countries: the view by rating agencies” at the XII Astana Economic Forum, Arturo Bris, Professor of Finance at IMD and Director of the World Competitiveness Center IMD, said that in order to improve the country’s position in the Global Competitiveness Ranking, Kazakhstan needs to develop the private sector.

Mr Bris said: “What difficulties does Kazakhstan face? In 2018, Kazakhstan’s rankings fell due to external factors, including the drop in oil prices. This is an uncontrollable situation. But we see that in 2019 the economic situation has changed for the better. However there was a serious decline in the competitiveness of Kazakhstan. I would describe it as a unique situation.”

According to the expert, when compiling a competitiveness rating, often most countries face problems in the public sector, while the private sector “carries the economy”. In Kazakhstan, the situation is completely reversed.

“There is a very efficient state machine in Kazakhstan that implements a huge amount of regulations, strategies, well-developed policies that have a long-term vision”, explained the professor.

He noted that competitiveness can be compared to a bicycle. To win, you need a good bicycle and a good racer. And if there is a good bicycle in Kazakhstan, then the problem is in the second component.

Mr Bris explained: “The bicycle in Kazakhstan is the state sector. You have a great state car, good tires, good pedals, good steering. But the one who pedals is the private sector, that’s who you need. You need a private sector that is healthy and adapts to the direction of the bicycle. In this sense, we see difficulties for Kazakhstan. In the coming years, political strategies should be implemented, while at the same time it is necessary to involve the private sector, to create more PPPs, to listen to the private sector.”

According to Kairat Kelimbetov, Governor of the Astana International Financial Center, the development of financial technologies, artificial intelligence and big data in the framework of the so-called fourth industrial revolution, helps the world to create a completely new type of financial centers. Their main priority will be to create a comfortable environment for investors. “Thanks to new technological solutions, the role of financial centers is becoming increasingly important in the modern world”, Kelimbetov stressed.

The Turkish politician announced the interest of Turkish companies to implement joint projects. “If you can save money that comes from oil and gas, create fiscal rules, then you need to direct these resources to improve the quality of education, spend this money on reforms, on creating a research and development ecosystem, on supporting start-ups. Technologies are being successfully implemented only where there is an attractive environment”, the expert concluded.

In addition, Askar Mamin, the Prime Minister of Kazakhstan, noted that all conditions have been created in Kazakhstan for the development of entrepreneurial activity and business.

In 2018 alone, the inflow of foreign direct investment in Kazakhstan increased to billion. The head of the Kazakh government said: “A favourable business climate and our new focus on new and promising industries lead to economic growth. Today, Kazakhstan has the most friendly business environment in the region. Understanding the importance of investments for our economy, we have created a Coordinating Council for attracting foreign investments, and I have been entrusted with the duties of an investment ombudsman.”

As noted by Monika Froehler, CEO of the Ban Ki-moon Centre for Global Citizens, Kazakhstan’s great contribution is not only in bringing together leading experts at AEF platform, but also discussing such ideas as G-Global. In her opinion, work on this direction should be done with “right persons”, she advises to focus and give a chance for participation on this platform to women and youth, and allocate to them more possibilities to work for goals of sustainable development and Climate Change Agreement.

“We should give the women and youth more opportunities, because their demands shape the future. Because we take decisions on their lives. Demands of women and youth are clear: they want to speak now- they are our future. We want equal opportunities in this global transformation. We are the first generation to stop poverty, but the last generation who can do something to prevent climate change. We can stop physical or verbal violence against women. We want to live in a world, free of nuclear threat. Kazakhstan is highly appreciated for efforts, applied in this area. Let us fight the climate change together, before it’s too late”, – proposed Ms Frohler.

According to Sergey Stanovkin, Head of BBC World News regional Representation in Eurasia, G-Global platform is a unique one in many aspects, being Nursultan Nazarbayev’s initiative.

“Kazakhstan is the country, which understands the meaning of love. The country which understands the meaning of friendship. It is the country, which has good relations with the entire world. Living in peace with the world is a unique attribute, you cannot be just smart for this, you must be wise. That is why, G-Global Platform has all the grounds to invite the world on this beautiful trip to the future, great future”, – he said, mentioning, that it is simply necessary to develop communication for this purpose.

Alexander Idrissov, Founder and President of Strategy Partners, outlined key “ingredients”, necessary for transformation of cities. First of all, city management should be keen on this.

“A mayor or governor, interested in promoting digital agenda, looking into the future, being a leader and active driver of changes, is one of the essential success factors”, – he stressed.

According to Justin Lin, Professor, National School of Development, Peking University, People’s Republic of China, Chief Economist and Senior Vice President of the World Bank (2008-2012), high tension between the USA and China, and the atmosphere of volatility, lack of clarity and uncertainty should be discussed today.

“We can talk on need for negotiations and some transactions in these bilateral relations. Unconditionally, there are a lot of details, in particular geopolitical problems, that are too obvious. It is a geopolitical rivalry between the USA and China. The USA is in “jealous” position towards rapidly developing China. This struggle for global influence creates very volatile environment,” – thinks Mr. Lin.

Dauren Abayev, the Minister of Information and social development of the Republic of Kazakhstan expressed this point of view today, at XII Astana Economic Forum, in the framework of panel session “Involvement of civil society in wellbeing policy”.

“During 28 years of Kazakhstan’s independence, every year we observe growth of GDP. But have citizens of Kazakhstan become happier to some extent, over these 28 years? We must think on this and discuss it. If overcoming the point of no return to poverty was a key goal for many countries in ХХ century, today the bar for us are such subjective concepts and happiness and wellbeing”, – stated Mr. Abayev.

As an example, he took the World Happiness report. Its composers base it on such criteria as GDP per capita, social support and expected life span. As a result, leading positions are occupied by Finland, Denmark, Norway and Iceland. Alongside with that, a very interesting experience was presented by the New Economy Fund, which has developed its own unique index, based on subjective life satisfaction.

“In 2012, Costa Rica, Vietnam and Colombia took the first places in this index. Since 2011, the OECD has been conducting a comprehensive study to measure a better life index. The index identifies 2 groups of well-being parameters. The first group includes such material criteria as housing conditions, revenue from work. The second group is education, ecology, civil rights, state of health, life satisfaction, safety, balance of work and personal life,” – said Abayev.

“Avoid calamities, design the world for the recently born children. They live in an absolutely different world. I hope the world that we want to create and the system that we want to establish, they will outlive the competition between the major countries and the main problems of the changing world”, – said the President of Armenia at the international conference devoted to the 100th anniversary of the International Labor Organization held as a part of the XII Astana Economic Forum.

Sberbank CEO Herman Gref, who is known for his passion for education, said: “We are all students. We try to be guided by the principle of Mahatma Gandhi – ‘Live as if you were going to die tomorrow. Learn as if you would live forever’.”

Other Forum participants voiced the following opinions: Jeffrey Sachs, Professor at the Columbia University: “Kazakhstan is one of the leaders in the field of commitment to peace”;

Armida Salsiah Alisjahbana, Under-Secretary-General of the UN and Executive Secretary of the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific: “Kazakhstan has great potential for achieving sustainable development goals”; Juan Manuel Santos, former President of Columbia and Nobel Peace Prize winner in 2016: “Over the past few years, the progress of the sustainable development goals has been phenomenal, but this is not enough”;

Chairman of Azerbaijan Railways Javid Gurbanov and Director General of Baku international Sea Trade Port Taleh Ziyadov attended the 10th Astana Economic Forum.

Stanley Fischer, former Vice Chairman of the US Federal Reserve Board of Governors: “Productivity growth is very difficult to predict. We just do everything in our power. ”

The AEF has always been a platform for concluding important agreements and memorandums. This time is no different. 43 agreements were signed at the Kazakhstan Global Investment Roundtable, totaling 8.7 billion dollars.

In particular, in the field of gas chemistry, the Mayor’s Office of the Mangystau region and Singaporean company Westgasoil signed an agreement on cooperation in the project of methanol and olefins production. The implementation of the project will localize the production of chemical products and promote export through the development of the gas chemical industry of Kazakhstan.

In order to develop exports, Yıldirim Holding (Turkey) and the Mayor’s Office of the Zhambyl region signed an agreement on the construction of a soda ash plant in the Zhambyl region, with the design capacity of 400,000 tons per year.

An agreement was also signed between KAZAKH INVEST and the Russian investor of Agricultural Industrial Holding “ECO-Culture” to construct greenhouse complexes, in order to export agricultural products. In the food industry, a Memorandum of Cooperation was signed by the Mayor’s Office of the Pavlodar region and the Beijing NAALE GROUP (China) for the construction of a sugar factory.

In the field of transport and logistics, YDA Holding (Turkey) signed an agreement with the Mayor’s Office of the Turkestan region on the construction and operation of an international airport. This will be the first airport in the history of Kazakhstan constructed from scratch. In addition, an agreement was signed by KAZAKH INVEST and the AEON Corporation (Russia) to create a logistics hub on the territory of the international airport in Aktobe.

In the mining and metallurgy sector, an agreement was reached between Canarax Trading LLC (UAE) and the Mayor’s Office of the Pavlodar region on the production of technical silicon with the prospect 165,000 tons per year capacity. The plant’s products will be used for the production of metal alloys, organic compounds, electronics and solar energy.

In the field of healthcare, an agreement was signed with the Shanghai Constructions Group (China) on the construction of a multidisciplinary clinic with 1,000 beds in Shymkent. It is planned that the state of the art clinic, equipped with new technologies and tools, will provide a full range of medical services and will become the only center of proton therapy in Central Asia.

In the field of education, a Road Map for the implementation of the project “Construction of an Educational Metropolis – Kindergarten, School, College, University” was signed with Singaporean investor Kinder World in three cities: Nur-Sultan, Almaty and Shymkent. In the coming years, a network of international schools, colleges and universities will be built in the capital of Kazakhstan.

In addition, agreements were reached on projects such as the construction of data centers and the implementation of 5G in Kazakhstan.

A memorandum of understanding was signed between the Eurasian Economic Commission (EEC) and the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UNESCAP). The document was endorsed by Timur Zhaksylykov, a member of the EEC collegium, and Armida Salsiah Alisjahbana, Deputy Secretary-General of the United Nations, Executive Secretary of UNESCAP.

The Astana Economic Forum was established by the initiative of Elbasy Nursultan Nazarbayev, is always held with his participation. AEF-2019 is not an exception. First President of the Republic of Kazakhstan taken part in the plenary session of the forum.

Survey is prepared by «Economic Research Institute» JSC and dedicated to XII Astana Economic Forum. The main purpose of this document is to analyze international and world trends and extrapolate them to Kazakhstan. In modern conditions, it is necessary to understand our development directions and keep «synchronizing watches» with international economic situation.

«Astana Economic Forum has become one of the most important platforms to engage thought leaders from our region and internationally. AEF became opportunity to interact with the Forum participants to exchange ideas on regional and global policy issues ranging from inclusive growth, smart cities, technological progress and regional cooperation under the overarching framework of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development», – says Armida Salsiah Alisjahbana, Executive Secretary, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific.

The Kazakhstan Economic Research Institute published an analytical review “Kazakhstan and the Global World: Challenges and Opportunities”. According to Yerlik Karazhan, the Chair of the Board of the Institute: “We want to demonstrate to the world the level of Kazakhstan’s participation in solving key global problems, the country’s focus on open development, and readiness to search for effective solutions in various sectors.”

For the first time in 11 years of the Astana Economic Forum presented AEF Talks format, targeted to young people and students.

Astana Economic Forum is not just a platform designed to discuss the most important problems of the world economy, but also a place for an effective exchange of experience, development of the partnership, promotion of the most ambitious ideas and innovative projects.

The subject of the Astana Economic Forum is updated annually and covers a wide range of issues and objectives of global development. The main theme of AEF-2019 is INSPIRING GROWTH: PEOPLE, CITIES, ECONOMICS is divided to five key areas: the global agenda; regional macroeconomics agenda; cities of the future; technology agenda; human capital and inclusive development of Kazakhstan.

The Astana Economic Forum is the flagship business event in Eurasia. Kazakhstan’s strategic task is to join the top 30 most developed global economies. The country is entering a new period of development, with emphasis being made on breakthrough scientific, technological and economic development, reducing corruption, and raising living standards. The Government’s work to increase the country’s competitive potential is directly reflected in well-known global rankings, including WEF’s Global Competitiveness Report, IMD World Competitiveness Rankings, World Bank’s ‘Doing Business’ ranking, and the Corruption Perceptions Index. Kazakhstan already ranks 28th in the latest ‘Doing Business’ report, is not in the list of the most corrupt countries in the world, according to Transparency International, and is showing steady growth in the PRS Group and IHS Markit ratings.

The Astana International Financial Centre (AIFC) and World Islamic Economic Forum Foundation recently signed an agreement to hold World Islamic Economic Forum (WIEF) in Astana on July 4. The forum will attract more attention to the AIFC and promote it as a regional hub of Islamic finance.

Kazakhstan’s new International Centre for Green Technologies and Investment Projects was presented during the Astana Economic Forum called Global Challenges Summit during a panel discussion by high officials and experts on the project. 

Kazakhstan intends to increase its contribution to UN peacekeeping operations, said Kairat Umarov, Kazakhstan’s Permanent Representative to the UN stated.

Routes Silk Road 2019 approved the Kazakh capital as the next forum venue to discuss and develop air routes for the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), Central and Eastern Europe and the Middle East. The Astana Economic Forum is an opportunity for international dialogue, discussion and brainstorming on a range of economic issues facing Central Asia and the rest of the world.

During the 12th annual Astana Economic Forum taking place in Nur-Sultan, President of the Republic of Armenia Armen Sarkissian met with Chairman of the Board of Directors of the famous Nokia Corporation Risto Siilasmaa. Georgia’s Prime Minister Mamuka Bakhtadze annou­nced that together with Kazakhstan, the country will offer international companies joint logistics projects.

“I would like to take this opportunity and express my great respect to First President of Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev who was the initiator of the forum and express high recognition to the Government of Kazakhstan for the high level of the forum,” Vice Premier of the State Council of China Han Zheng said, taking the floor at the XII Astana Economic Forum. Turkic-speaking States established the Joint Chambers of Commerce and Industry at the signing ceremony organized by the Turkic Council Secretariat in Nur-Sultan (former Astana) as part of the Astana Economic Forum, Trend reports via the press office the Turkic Council.

The AEF is the global discussion platform in Central Asia. Since the launch of the AEF eleven years ago, the event has become one of the most influential international platforms for discussing issues of the world economy and the financial system. Over 50,000 delegates participated in the forum from 150 countries, including more than 20 Nobel laureates and 30 high-level foreign political figures.

As a result of previous Forums, more than 300 memorandums and agreements have been signed worth more than billion.

The theme of the AEF is updated annually and covers various global development issues, and sets the direction for a wide range of discussions.

The international media noted the effectiveness and credibility of the Forum. Euronews described the AEF as one of the most influential international platforms, where issues of the development and restoration of the world economy and the financial system are being discussed. Bloomberg also considers the AEF the main discussion platform in Central Asia: “Since the launch of the Forum 11 years ago, the event has become one of the most influential international platforms for discussing the issues of the world economy”.

The Forum’s foreign guests noted the high level of organization of the event, including excellent planning at the venues, developed infrastructure, interesting discussion formats, a memorable opening ceremony of the plenary session and an original design of the halls. Many participants shared the opinion that “the AEF was free from the official narrative, the communication was highly valued here.” The productive, lively dialogues fully correspond with the concept of the Astana Economic Forum.

These are the results of the AEF-2019, organized this year by Astana EXPO-2017. The next 2020 Forum is promising to be just as spectacular as this year.

Ahead of the June 2019 presidential election in Kazakhstan, the Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of the country, Roman Vassilenko, in an interview with N. Sethurupan, reiterates how Kazakhstan has developed into a well-regarded Eurasian state through its bilateral relations with European states, infrastructural development, and regional relations in Central Asia, through various EU-related strategies and other domestic strategic ties in the Eurasian community.

In this interview on the eve of last month’s Eurasian Media Forum in Almaty, he talks about the achievements of the government, led by President Nursultan Nazarbayev for almost thirty years until his resignation last March – especially in the areas of infrastructural development and international conflict resolution strategies – the highs and lows of the present Kazakhstan state, vis-a-vis various political conflicts amongst neighbours, the role of the forthcoming election for the country, and the need for the international community to reckon with a country that is fast becoming a Eurasian powerhouse. Here are the excerpts below:

Roman Vassilenko: Over the past fifteen years, we have been bringing together not only media experts and professionals, but also politicians, global leaders, business leaders, scholars from think tanks, et cetera, to discuss salient issues of the day, and try to look into the future. 

So, the word Eurasian Media Forum is a bit of a misnomer, but because it is such a wide-range event that creates an atmosphere of free discussion, it is valued by the participants. Hence, year after year, it has more and more interesting speakers and attendees. 

I hope you will enjoy in the next two days in Almaty. Kazakhstan is indeed the first country on the way from China to Europe, and it’s not surprising that an American journalist recently labelled Kazakhstan as “the buckle in the belt” of the Belt and Road Initiative, because without the buckle, the belt will not hold. 

You are quite right that this cannot but impact the development of the region or the dynamics of geopolitics in this part of the world. Going forward, I would say that Kazakhstan has embraced that initiative fully, it is part of our strategic thinking. The Belt and Road Initiative was launched in Astana, as it was called then, now Nur-Sultan, in September 2013, by President Xi Jinping of China. He spoke at the university here and outlined this vision. However, before that was done, we ourselves had been making efforts to create both hard and soft infrastructure for Kazakhstan, in order for her to be able to play a role as the connecting bridge in the heart of Eurasia, just as it used to be centuries ago, along the Silk Road. 

It is common knowledge that the Silk Road basically disappeared with the advent of maritime transportation, and the competing interests between the Russian and British empires. Central Asia was sealed off from the rest of the world for very, very long time. It was certainly sealed during the Soviet times because there was virtually zero trade going East, towards China, or going south, towards Afghanistan. 

So, what we did, even before this Belt and Road Initiative was launched, was build infrastructure in Kazakhstan. We built new railways and new roads. Speaking of railways, we have built 2,500 kilometers of new railways, reconnecting the west and the east of the country. 

In the past, in the Soviet times, those connections were done from the southeast to northwest, then to Russia, where all the raw materials were shipped for processing. There were virtually zero connections among the eastern and western regions of the country. So, we have done that. By the way, when we talk of new railway constructions since the year of independence, 1991, that number of 2,500 kilometers of new railways is larger than the length of new railways built in all other member countries of the Commonwealth Independent States, including Russia. We have also built 5,000 kilometers of new motor roads, including the 2800km stretch of the Western Europe-Western China highway that cuts across Kazakhstan.

In terms of soft infrastructure, President Nazarbayev, in 1994, proposed the creation of the Eurasian Union, which is not a recreation of the Soviet Union, but an economic union, where interests of all participants are taken into consideration, and where all matters of principle are resolved based on the principle of consensus. This is currently happening in Eurasian Economic Union, which was founded in Astana, our capital, on 29th May, 2014. So, we are coming to the fifth anniversary of that union, which now includes five countries: Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Russia. 

The union is, first and foremost, a customs union. It is a union aimed at achieving the four freedoms of movement – labour, goods, capital and services. The customs union is working and it means that there are now only two customs borders on the way from China to Europe. One is the border between China and Kazakhstan, the other is a border between Russia or Belarus and Poland. There, the goods go through the European common market into the European Union. So, that has removed a lot of obstacles to the land-based transportation across Kazakhstan. 

As a result, since 2011, we have seen the doubling of container transportation through Kazakhstan from China to Europe, and backwards. In 2010, there was zero container traffic across Kazakhstan, last year, we had 365,000 containers moving both ways. These containers go hundred percent loaded from China to Europe, and 50 percent loaded from Europe to China. 

Of course, you need to find something to ship back to China is the global workshop. It ships its goods to Europe. Still, there are examples of successful transportation being done by European companies from Europe to China. For example, fiber cellulose is shipped to China from Finland, engines for Volvo cars are shipped to China from Sweden, French vines are shipped to China by train, just to mention a few.

Right now, Kazakhstan implements fifty-five joint projects with China worth 27 billion dollars. These are, to the largest extent, Chinese investments. These are not loans, and that means that this cooperation between Kazakhstan and China is a stable one. It’s one where the relationship does not create dependency, as in the case of other countries. Here, it’s more of an equal relationship. 

The Kazakhstan economy is robust. It is worth about 200 billion dollars in terms of GDP value. Kazakhstan is a middle-income country. In fact, according to the World Bank and the UN, it is an upper middle-income country. Our bilateral trade is also balanced, it’s not in one direction. We, for example, have the European Union as our biggest trading partner, accounting for fifty percent of our trade. Then, in terms of bilateral relations, Russia is number one country, with about 18 percent of our trade, and China, second, with about 12 percent of our external trade. 

That gives you an idea about how these relations are balanced. 

Another notable feat is that Kazakhstan has attracted 320 billion dollars in foreign direct investments since independence. The overwhelming majority of these investments are Western, European and American. 

Another example of how these relations are balanced is seen in the oil and gas sector in the country, where we have Western, European and American, companies, accounting for about 45 percent of oil production, and Chinese companies accounting for about thirty percent of oil production. We have Kazakhstan national oil companies accounting for about 20 percent of our oil and gas production, and the rest is accounted for by other countries. So, Kazakhstan has worked on a political level to make sure that these relations in Central Asia, between Kazakhstan and our largest neighbours, Russia and China are stable. We have done this through the establishment of both bilateral relations and multilateral frameworks. 

These are organizations such as the CIS or the Eurasian Economic Union, beginning with Russia and other countries. Moreover, there is the Collective Security Treaty Organization with Russia and countries, like Armenia, Belarus and Tajikistan, and other organizations such as Shanghai Cooperation Organization with China, Russia, and now, with India and Pakistan as full members since 2017.

Furthermore, I will highlight an organization, which is called the Conference on Interaction and Confidence-Building Measures in Asia (CICA). CICA works on interaction and confidence building measures in Asia. This was an initiative proposed by Kazakhstan in 1992, along the lines of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). And right now, that organization brings together 27 countries in the Eurasian region; stretching from Israel and Iran; to India and Pakistan; to China and Vietnam; to Russia and other countries in the CIS. In fact, it is, perhaps, the only other organization outside of the UN that includes both Israel and Iran as members. Also, up until recently, there was only one organization that included India and Pakistan. Now, India and Pakistan are members of Shanghai Cooperation Organization.

All these achievements were made possible by the country through the efforts of our first president, Nursultan Nazarbayev, who is also holding the title of leader of the nation. In recognition of his contributions to the establishment of the country as an independent state, he participated in the second BRI forum in Beijing in April after acting as president in the first forum in 2016. In his address to the participants of the forum, he, in fact, called for the Concept of Three Dialogues to be implemented in Eurasia, and I think this is worth looking at.

President Nazarbayev said that there should be a three-level dialogue. One is among the four key players internationally right now – the US, the EU, Russia, and China – that can deliberate on global security matters and global arrangements, so to speak. 

The second one is about cooperation between these two security-related organizations in Eurasia – OSCE and CICA. 

And the third dialog the first president of Kazakhstan proposed was the economic dialogue among the EU, Eurasian Economic Union, ASEAN and Shanghai Cooperation Organization. We are now going to pursue these initiatives and ideas, because we think they are relevant for the international community and for the relations in Eurasia. 

N. Sethurupan: Speaking of the Chinese, is China’s “One Belt, One Road” used for public purpose, business purpose or any other purpose as well?  Some countries have said Kazakhstan became ‘Safe Haven’ for the Chinese economical interventions to Europe.

Roman Vassilenko: I don’t know who thinks that. I wouldn’t even comment on this because I think it is not what this Belt and Road Initiative is about.

N. Sethurupan: Can you compare this with Northern Sea Route? It’s now connecting with the Russian initiative. How can it damage other Asian countries in Asia and Africa?

Roman Vassilenko: You know I wouldn’t use the word damage. Instead, I would say that there is growing competition in terms of the available transportation routes. 

However ambitious we could be, we expect that there would be about two million containers transported across Kazakhstan from China to Europe in few years. That, however, is only a very small percentage of the overall volume of fifty million containers that are being transported annually between China and Europe by sea. So, maybe the northern route will be regarded as a competition. But, however ambitious we could be in terms of our statements, we have to be realistic that this southern maritime transportation routes are still going to be for a long while, the most widely used. 

It’s cheaper and about twice or three times as long as the land based transportation, and herein is our advantage. So, we are saying that if you need to have your goods delivered from China to Europe faster then that’s the railroad. That’s the road that is used by companies, such as Hewlett Packard, which produces computers, Apple, the producers of iPhones, etc. They ship through Kazakhstan from China because they need their products transported faster, and this transportation network offers a 15-day delivery, as opposed to 30 or 40 days by sea.

N.Sethurupan: How do you see the Ukraine and Iranian crisis? How do they affect Kazakhstan economy and currency value because of the affected oil price?

Roman Vassilenko: Speaking of the currency,it’s been stable, it has been kept stable for more than a year. Let me say this. First, Kazakhstan has been a very strong supporter of dialogue, cooperation and peaceful resolution of conflicts since the very beginning of our independence.

And that is why we have supported the resolution of the Ukrainian crisis from the very beginning. Kazakhstan and President Nazarbayev had played an important role in organizing the Minsk one and the Minsk two meetings, which have so far been the only viable options for the resolution of the crisis. Concerning Iran, Kazakhstan has hosted two rounds of talks on the Iranian nuclear program, Kazakhstan has participated in the implementation of Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), and Kazakhstan is strongly in support of keeping the JCPOA. We have, in fact, as I said, participated in the implementation by shipping raw uranium to Iran, paid for by the Norwegian government, in exchange for Iran shipping enriched uranium to Russia, so the Norwegian government also participated in this in a very concrete way. 

Right now Kazakhstan is very much in favour of the resolution of all these tensions among the global powers, which I mentioned earlier. However, the situation with [US relations with] Iran and China are different, because [with China] there are trade conflicts. There are tariffs and counter tariffs being placed on each other, and this cannot but impact the trade between China and US, but also it cannot but impact our trade with China. 

Similarly, with Russia, sanctions that the West imposed on Russia and Russia’s counter measures against the West have an impact on our economy. We are in this situation where we are affected by actions of others and we have no say. We shouldn’t have any responsibility for the actions of others, but in some ways, we are affected in a negative way by all these stand offs. 

So that’s why we are in full support of any initiative internationally to help resolve these differences among these players and decrease the tensions. That’s why President Nazarbayev proposed the 3D initiative. 

We just hosted the 12s round of Astana process talks a few weeks ago. We have always said that we would provide the facilities, the grounds, and be the hosts for these talks. We did not participate in these talks, because they are done by the so-called guarantor estates – Russia, Turkey, Iran, – as well as the Syrian government, with the participation of UN special envoy and Norwegian diplomat Geir Pedersen.

Speaking of Norway, we are very close countries. There is only one country in between us (laughs), because Russia borders Kazakhstan and then borders Norway. But if you look at history, there would be a lot of commonalities found in our histories and our national psyches, so to speak. 

You know the Kazakhs were nomads from the East, while the Norwegians were nomads of the seas.  And we have set up and then built up this National Fund in Kazakhstan based on the Norwegian model. Now, Norwegian fund is one trillion dollars while ours is eighty billion dollars, which is also reasonable. We use resources of this fund for rainy day purposes, and try to replenish after.

Also, like Norway, Kazakhstan is a very strong advocate for nuclear non-proliferation and nuclear disarmament, just like Sweden as well as like Finland. We have, in fact, hosted the speaker of the Swedish parliament (Riksdag). He visited not only Astana, but he travelled to former Semipalatinsk nuclear test site which were shut down by President Nazarbayev in 1991, and this was the test site where Soviet Union conducted 456 nuclear tests. So, Norway has contributed immensely to the global peace keeping process by financial contributions et cetera. 

Kazakhstan has now also begun that work. Our first contingent of peacekeepers was deployed last year to Lebanon to serve in the UN field service contingent under the Indian command and we are now going to expand this. So, this is another area where we find strong commonalities with Norway. We want people in Norway to know more about Kazakhstan because I think there are just so many interesting rooms for cooperation. Not to mention interesting commonalities in culture. I’ve been to Norway many times, I have many, many friends there. And I was told (I wasn’t served) that Norwegians, just like Kazakhs, serve boiled sheep head also. It is such a rare commonality. You don’t find many nations that have that in their national cuisines. 

I would also highlight the important political moment in Kazakhstan now, because we are going through a political transit – we are going through an election campaigs. The presidential election is set for June 9th, and this is already the most competitive election in Kazakhstan’s history, as nine candidates sought to run. Seven candidates are registered to run, including a woman contesting to be president for the first time in our history. We are naturally looking forward to a very interesting campaign because these candidates represent various interests and political platforms. For example, there is the liberal platform, there is pro-business platform, there is a communist running, and, of course, a representative of the ruling Nur Otan party. 

So, I think it is important for the international community to realize at this stage that, this is a critical moment for Kazakhstan, but it is being done in a stable and orderly way. It is important that this election is seen as the most competitive in Kazakhstan history, and as the next step forward in Kazakhstan development. It is important that the result of the election is embraced by the international community because this will be the expression of the will of the people of Kazakhstan. 

I think that even at this stage, we can already talk about the commitment of all the candidates running to preserve Kazakhstan’s international commitment towards playing a constructive role in this part of the world, and to be a partner of the international community in resolution of the global issues, such as the Syrian conflict that you mentioned earlier, or towards being the partner in the economic development of our region, where we have been seeing very promising trends in relations among all Central Asian states in the past two to three years.

Vietnam strives to develop the traditional friendship and multi-faceted co-operation with Norway, and important partner in Northern Europe, Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyễn Xuân Phúc said yesterday.

The leader made the statement during talks with Norwegian Prime Minister Erna Solberg in Oslo, held as part of his official visit to the country.

Norwegian PM Erna Solberg expressed her belief that PM Phúc’s visit will help strengthen relations.

Host and guest both said they valued the recent developments in bilateral ties, nothing that the two sides have help a number of high-level meetings.

They agreed to step up delegation exchanges at all levels to create momentum for co-operation in various areas.

Vietnam PM Phúc thanked the Norwegian government and people for their continuous provision of official development assistance (ODA) to Vietnam over the years, helping the country to develop, fulfil the UN Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and work towards international integration.

He called on Norway to maintain its development co-operation with Vietnam and support the Southeast Asian nation in fields such as environment, education, economic management, administrative reform and bomb and mine clearance.

Progress has been made in other areas, especially forestry, fisheries, renewable energy, maritime transportation and shipbuilding, the two leaders said. However, bilateral trade has not yet reached its potential.

They agreed to push ahead with negotiations of the free trade agreement between Vietnam and the European Free Trade Association (EFTA), for which Norway is the co-ordinator.

The two countries will encourage their businesses to expand operations in each market, particularly in solar energy, petroleum technology and the marine economy.

They will also promote the quality and consumption of their seafood, including Vietnamese tra fish and Norwegian salmon.

The leaders talked about partnering in education-training and cultural exchange, and agreed to assign ministries to foster collaboration in new spheres regarding women, peace and security, tourism and sports and people-to-people exchanges.

PM Erna Solberg lauded the role of the 20,000-strong Vietnamese community in Norway in developing the friendship between the two peoples.

PM Phúc suggested the Norwegian government create more favourable conditions for the community to work and integrate into the host society.

The leaders agreed Vietnam and Norway should strengthen their co-ordination at multilateral forums, especially at the United Nations and within the framework of the ASEAN-Norway and the Asia-Europe Meeting (ASEM).

This is especially important as both countries are running for non-permanent seats on the UN Security Council, with Việt Nam seeking a spot for the 2020-21 term and Norway for the 2021-22 tenure.

Both PMs noted the countries’ mutual support at multilateral forums as well as their efforts to work with the international community towards global peace.

They restated their common commitment to sustainable and inclusive development in accordance with the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals, emphasising forest protection, responding to climate change and sea level rise and plastic waste management.

Regarding the South China Sea (known in Vietnam as the East Sea) issue, they exchanged views on the need to ensure peace, stability, security and freedom of navigation and aviation in the area.

All disputes should be settled by peaceful measures in line with international law including the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea and other relevant regional documents, they said.

Norwegian PM Erna Solberg congratulated Việt Nam on its economic achievements and praised its role in the region and the world, especially its hosting of recent major international events.

PM Phúc invited his Norwegian counterpart to visit Việt Nam again, and PM Erna Solberg accepted the invitation.

Meeting with the King

Vietnam Prime Minister Nguyễn Xuân Phúc also had a meeting with King Harald V of Norway as part of his ongoing official visit to the European country.

During the meeting, PM Phúc conveyed the regards of Party General Secretary and State President Nguyễn Phú Trọng.

While expressing his pleasure at visiting Norway, the Vietnamese leader spoke highly of the achievements in all areas made by the Norwegian people under the King’s reign.

King Harald V welcomed PM Phúc’s visit and said he valued the results of talks between the two nations’ Prime Ministers.

He said the Norwegian royal family supports developing the friendship and co-operation of the two countries.

PM Phúc stressed that the Vietnamese Government and people attach importance to the relationship with Norway.

He said the close friendship between the two peoples is the basis for deepening co-operation to the benefit of both sides. He also said he hopes for continued support from the government and royal family of Norway.

PM Phúc extended an invitation from Party General Secretary and State President Nguyễn Phú Trọng to King Harald V to return to Vietnam. The King accepted the invitation with pleasure

(VNS, vietnamnews)

The International Day of Yoga will be celebrated in Oslo on Sunday, 23rd June 2019 at 10.00 hours at the Norwegian School of Sport Science (NIH).

This will be the 5th such annual celebration of the International Day of Yoga in Norway.

The UN General Assembly Resolution A/Res/69/131, which was adopted by acclamation in December 2014 with a record number of 177 co-sponsoring member states, established the International Day of Yoga for observance by the United Nations on 21 June each year.

Yoga is an invaluable gift of India’s ancient tradition for over 6,000 years. It embodies unity of mind and body; thought and action; restraint and fulfillment; harmony between man and nature; and a holistic approach to health and well-being. Yoga is not about exercise but to discover the sense of oneness with ourselves, the world and the nature. By changing our lifestyle and creating consciousness, it can help us deal with climate change.

Yoga is an ancient physical, mental and spiritual practice that originated in India. The word ‘yoga’ derives from Sanskrit and means to join or to unite, symbolizing the union of body and consciousness.

Today it is practiced in various forms around the world and continues to grow in popularity.

The International Day of Yoga aims to raise awareness worldwide of the many benefits of practicing yoga.

The US will respond with military force if it or its interests are attacked by Tehran, the special representative on Iran said on Thursday. But US Special Representative for Iran, Brian Hook, said US actions taken so far in the Gulf region, which include repositioning military assets, have had the “desired deterrent effect on the (Iranian) regime’s risk calculations.”

Hook was speaking to reporters by phone ahead of emergency summits of Arab leaders in the Saudi city of Makkah due on Thursday to discuss drone strikes on oil installations in Saudi Arabia and attacks on four vessels, including two Saudi oil tankers, off the UAE coast earlier this month.

The United States is not pursuing a policy of regime change in Iran, White House National Security Adviser John Bolton said on Thursday. During a visit to London, Bolton also told reporters the threat from Iran was not over but that the quick response and deployment from the United States had helped deter it.

Meanwhile, Mr Hook said Washington was expecting the results of the UAE, Norway and Saudi investigations into the attacks soon and would wait until then to respond.

“Once we have a fuller picture of the facts we’ll be in a position to discuss the proper response, but that’s something that we would be doing in concert with Norway, Saudi Arabia and the UAE,” he said at a briefing.

Mr Hook said he believed Tehran had “got the message” for now and that many of the attacks the US feared had not eventuated.

Mr Hook said the renewal of sanctions against Iran after the US withdrew from a 2015 nuclear deal was “working by nearly every measure” to contain Iran and its proxies for their behaviour in the region.

The economic bans the US has placed on Iran is working against Iran’s “favourite son” Hezbollah, Hamas, militia groups and the Assad regime in Syria as funding from Iran dries up, he said.

Responding to a question about China and India importing Iranian oil and whether it was possible for them to keep importing small amounts, Hook said there would be no more exceptions granted to sanctions against Iran oil imports.

“There will be no more oil waivers granted,” he said, adding that any oil imported by any country beyond waiver limits that ran from November last year to May, would be subject to sanctions.

Below is a full rush transcript of the press conference by Brian Hook, the U.S. Special Representative for Iran and Senior Policy Advisor to the Secretary of State.

Brian Hook:  Good to be with you. I’ll make a couple opening remarks here and then happy to take questions. Our maximum pressure campaign is working by nearly every measure the Iranian regime and its proxies are weaker today than when the president took office over two years ago.

And let me give you some statistics. Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah went on TV in March and said that public support was needed to sustain their operations. Hamas has enacted austerity plans to deal with the lack of funds from Iran. Iran’s Shia militia groups have been told by Iran that their bankroll will dwindle and they have to find new sources of revenue. The Assad regime today faces a fuel shortage crisis because we have cut off the 1 to 3 million barrels per month that was once supplied by Iran. Iran’s cyber command is also short on cash.

We have also seen Iran’s military spending be cut dramatically. During the time of the Iran nuclear deal when the United States was a participant, Iran’s military spending peaked. Since we have exited the deal Iran’s military spending for the budget that they released in March was cut by 28 percent and that includes a 17 percent cut in the IRGC Quds force operations.

Iran’s economy is in recession and our oil sanctions once they are fully in effect and we have put in place a policy of zero imports for Iranian crude oil. Our oil sanctions will deny the regime 50 billion dollars in revenue that is 40 percent of its annual budget and we are closing the doors to Iran sanctions evasion to cover these losses. One of the ways we’ve done that is by working with other countries that issue flags to tankers around the world including Iran. We have been successful in stripping 80 Iranian tankers of the maritime flags that they need to sail.

We’ve done 26 rounds of sanctions almost 1000 people over the last two years being outside of the deal has put us in a much stronger position to really deny the regime revenue. We are making Iran’s foreign policy much harder to execute and we’re making it prohibitively expensive.

So those are my opening remarks and I’m happy to take questions.

Media: “Is the US administration willing to negotiate with Iran? What would those negotiations include? And will President Trump consider meeting with Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei?”

Brian Hook: I think the president himself has already answered all of those questions. I remember there was a tweet he put out some time ago. He also, I think a week or two ago, had said he would welcome a phone call from the Iranians. Our foreign policy to Iran is driven by Secretary Pompeo’s list of twelve. Those twelve requirements focus on the nuclear program, the missile program, Iran’s regional aggression and the arbitrary detention of dual nationals. This list of twelve reflected the global consensus prior to the Iran nuclear deal. And the Iran nuclear deal, one of its many failings is that it has reduced and mislead people into thinking that the only threat to peace and security that Iran presents is its nuclear program because the Iran nuclear deal is silent on Iran’s missiles and on the regional aggression. And in fact, the only area where there is any discussion of missiles is where the U.S. Security Council resolution 2231 watered down what used to be a prohibition on Iran’s ballistic missile testing. We are trying to restore what was the global consensus and to hold Iran to a set of standards that we believe are very reasonable and the same sort of things that we would ask of a normal nation. And Iran faces a choice they have to decide whether they want to be a normal country or a revolutionary cause. And we are driving up the costs of Iran’s foreign policy. We would like to get, the President has said when he was in Japan that he would like to get to a new and better deal that would replace the existing Iran nuclear deal and it will be comprehensive.

Media: Given the current situation, how is America prepared to go with Iran if for instance it’s perceived that Iran is posing some type of a threat. What would that threat need to be for America to take some form decisive action?

Brian Hook: Well I think Secretary Pompeo and the President have already put out statements on this. I think a number of times probably since September we have put out statements that have warned the Iranians not to strike at American interests. We had received a number of sort of from our intelligence community, we had detected a number of threats against American interests. If we are attacked we have promised to respond with force. We have repositioned our military assets in the region to respond to these threats and we think that that repositioning of assets has had the desired deterrent effect and the disruptive effect on the regime’s risk calculations. And so we’re very pleased with how we’ve sort of managed Iran’s threats over the last few weeks. I would say since early May that’s for the time being. But we have we have made clear that we will respond with military force if American interests are attacked by Iran.

Media: “The tone of the U.S. rhetoric has eased up and the U.S. administration has shown the principle of dialogue with Iran has been enhanced. Why then is there a U.S. military buildup in the region? Is it possible to have U.S. observers monitor the Iranian nuclear reactor and insist that it is used for peaceful purposes only?

Brian Hook: Well let’s see on the first one I think we’ve been pretty consistent in our messaging that Iran should show more of an interest in threats, should show more of an interest in talks than threats and we’ve seen on an almost daily basis the Iranian regime saying that they will not talk with the United States. We’ve made very clear our position on that, the President’s very open to negotiations with this regime to replace the nuclear deal. We put in place an enhanced force package in the region as a responsive measure to intelligence that we were receiving that Iran was plotting imminent attacks against American interests in the region. And so that was a defensive move and we think that Iran did get the message for the time being. And a lot of the attacks that we feared against American interests have not come to pass. But we are postured in a way where if we are attacked we will respond with military force.

The United States I believe is the largest funder of the IAEA. Continue to work very closely with Director General Amano and we have an ambassador there Jackie Wolcott who is working very effectively with the IAEA and we will continue working with them as we have going forward.

Media:  About that Trump undercuts Bolton on Iran and North Korea recently. We have seen during his four-day visit to Japan, when he talked about – I’m not talking like Bolton, regime changes in Iran. Obviously the two men have separate ways of thinking. Trump does not want to pressurizing him. How does that have an impact on Iran and also on the foreign policy with the US?

Brian Hook: I’m sure I talk about policy I don’t talk about people. So I’m happy to just say that the President’s national security cabinet is in full agreement with the President’s policy to Iran. He is, the President, is the one who makes the decisions on our Iran strategy and the national security cabinet then executes that strategy. And we’ve got an enormous I think seriousness of purpose to change Iran’s behavior within the President’s national security cabinet. We definitely desire a change in the regime’s behavior. They have had a good run of many years making advances in a number of categories that are threats to peace and security. And we are trying to reverse Iran’s gains and to take what we have put in place a truly comprehensive policy to address the entire range of Iran’s threats to peace and security. We recently sanction people involved in Iran’s nuclear program. We put in place sanctions against their missile program, their regional aggression, their human rights abuses by sanctioning the head of the judiciary some time ago for cracking down on the Iranian people that they put in jail who were protesting. Within the President’s cabinet there is enormous unity and seriousness of purpose.

Media: Where is the U.S. thinking on taking sanctions measures against INSTEX or its Mirror Company in Iran? On what basis given that it’s done no trade yet and plans to do humanitarian transactions at least for now and given your previous assessment that no one would use it so that it’s irrelevant ?

Brian Hook: Well there isn’t a mirror image set up currently because INSTEX does require a mirror image on the Iran side. And so the Europeans have set up their mechanism and the European side of the mirror is fully transparent. Iran doesn’t even comply with ­­­­FATF standards. They have a financial sector that is opaque by design. They do not want people to see where the money goes. They don’t want people to follow the money. And it’s been that way for 40 years. So I am skeptical that Iran will ever be able to internally agree on setting up a transparent mirror image to match the European financial mechanism. That said if there is a day where there is any sort of any transactions being conducted by INSTEX we expect those to be purely for permitted transactions. We do permit under United States law Treasury. You can see this on their web site. We make exceptions and our sanctions regime for food, medicine, medical devices, agricultural products. So there are categories of transactions which are permitted. We would expect any mechanism to be consistent with that. We have said repeatedly for some time now that we will sanction any sanctionible behavior. I don’t see any corporate demand for INSTEX. I have yet to receive a question where somebody points to a specific corporation that has said that it wants to use INSTEX. We just don’t see any corporate demand for it because if a corporation is given a choice between doing business in the United States or doing business in Iran it’s going to choose the United States every single time. So that’s our current assessment of INSTEX.

Media: You mentioned about that speech that Hassan Nasrallah gave on TV end of March, but do you have any other truth that Hezbollah is struggling financially and also smuggling money and weapons to Hezbollah during these heavy sanctions on Iran? 

Brian Hook: Well Hezbollah has been Iran’s favorite child. Their favorite son from the beginning. And it’s a model that they try to replicate around the Middle East. We are doing, of course, everything we can to deter any shipments of weapons or any illegal goods. What we’ve been very pleased with is the fact that Hezbollah is struggling financially. Seventy percent of Hezbollah’s budget comes from Iran and that comes to about 700 million dollars per year. Secretary Pompeo was recently in Lebanon. We very much support Lebanese sovereignty and independence. Iran would like to, Iran has a different vision. They would like to see a Lebanon that they dominate. And we would like to see Lebanon a strong and secure and independent. We believe that we know because for the first time in their history they had to make a public appeal for donations. Today, you can find piggy banks and grocery stores billboards with signs with phone numbers to call in to send money. This is not these are not signs of an organization in strong financial health. You have had stories in The New York Times in March and then you also had a Washington Post story just a couple of weeks ago that document all the ways that Hezbollah has been struggling because of our sanctions which we’re very pleased with. Our goal is for that to continue as long as possible.

Media: “Observers say that the failure of the United States in Iraq had contributed to the emergence of Iraqi militias supported by Iran. These militias are a threat to U.S. interests in the region. Are you now working to dismantle these militias as part of your campaign of maximum pressure on Iran?

Brian Hook: Secretary Pompeo was in Iraq, he’s been over there a couple of times in the last few months very much supporting Iraqi armed forces is having a monopoly on the use of force in Iraq. We would like, we very much want to support the government there. It’s similar to what we’ve seen in some ways in terms of Iran. Iran’s foreign policy is designed to dissolve national identities and then to replace them with a sectarian identity to promote sectarian violence to create these paramilitaries and these sort of alternative governments which undermine the authority and the powers of the state. So we are fully invested in the future of the Iraqi government and its people. We think that we provide a much better offer to the Iraqi people than the Iranians. I know President Rouhani was there a couple of months ago and our reaction to that was in light of how Rouhani has treated his own people, just imagine how he will treat the Iraqis. He is not invested in their future and with Iran’s economy in a freefall. That’s partly our sanctions but it’s mostly Rouhani and the Supreme Leader run a kleptocracy. It is a corrupt religious mafia that robs its own people blind in order to fund a very violent and ideological foreign policy. So we would like to see Iraqi armed forces have the monopoly on force. That is one of the attributes of statehood. Iran does not share that vision. Qasem Soleimani does not share that vision. But we think the Iraqi people do.

Media: Can you just update the latest on what level of imports, if any you’re seeing from them, and obviously what Zarif said in public is that the current level of trying to get them down to zero is what they object to. Is there any version of China and or India importing a little bit of Iranian oil to keep Iran over 800,000 and to lower tensions? 

Brian Hook: There will be no more oil waivers granted and the only oil that that would have been permitted would have been under the cap that we negotiated that led up to those, that cap was negotiated it was to run for a period from November of 2018 until May of 2019. And so once people have reached that cap of what was negotiated during that period that then would be the limit of the oil that we would permit to move through that would not be sanctioned. We will sanction any efforts to import Iranian crude oil beyond the limits that were negotiated in the period that ran from November through May. To date we have, I’ve been on the road for a few days and I haven’t checked in on the latest but the countries that you mentioned I think every country is aware of it. We now have I think close to 30 countries that used to import Iranian crude oil that are now at zero. This accounts for 40 percent of the regime’s revenue. If we want to get serious about denying Iran the money it needs to destabilize the Middle East. We have to enforce oil sanctions and we think that this is something which all countries in the world share a desire for a more peaceful and stable Middle East for as long as Iran is able to conduct its foreign policy with impunity fueled by oil revenue, it is going to be unstable. So that has been our message. I think nations know that if there are efforts to import Iranian crude oil beyond the accepted levels that were negotiated back from November through May that they will be sanctioned.

Media: “John Bolton said today from the UAE that the IRGC is most certainly responsible for attacking ships and Fujairah. Isn’t this considered an attack on U.S. partners? What will be the reactions from the U.S. military and is there a red line by POTUS?

Brian Hook: We will let the nations that were attacked announce the results of their own investigation. I think we’re getting near the end of that from what I’ve heard that the UAE, Saudi, and Norway will be announcing the results of the investigation into their attacks. I don’t want to prejudge their conclusions. And I think in due course they will be announcing that. I think once that’s then, once we have a fuller picture of the facts we’ll be in a position to discuss the proper response. But that’s something that we would be doing in concert with Norway, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.